Mathematical Modelling of Acute Rheumatic Fever

Abstract

Acute rheumatic fever is a major cause of heart disease in many parts of the world. Though it is generally considered rare in developed countries, is remains a large issue in New Zealand. Of particular concern is the prevalence of acute rheumatic fever among Maori and Paci c Island peoples. In this thesis we develop a model to simulate acute rheumatic fever in a population. We discuss the use of both deterministic methods and stochastic processes. Demographics and statistics speci c to New Zealand are then used to develop the model in a way that ts speci cally to the situation in New Zealand. We also consider the introduction of treatment strategies for acute rheumatic fever and discuss how risk factors can be used to focus such strategies.