Abstract:
Acute rheumatic fever is a major cause of heart disease in many parts of the
world. Though it is generally considered rare in developed countries, is remains
a large issue in New Zealand. Of particular concern is the prevalence of acute
rheumatic fever among Maori and Paci c Island peoples. In this thesis we develop
a model to simulate acute rheumatic fever in a population. We discuss the use of
both deterministic methods and stochastic processes. Demographics and statistics
speci c to New Zealand are then used to develop the model in a way that ts
speci cally to the situation in New Zealand. We also consider the introduction of
treatment strategies for acute rheumatic fever and discuss how risk factors can be
used to focus such strategies.
