If Bill Phillips were Governor ...? Some implications of his work for contemporary macroeconomic policy

Abstract

The purpose of this essay is to address the question: “Are there elements of Phillip's work that are still relevant today for macroeconomic policymaking today?” In undertaking this task, I will draw on the summary of his work from the second part of Allan Bollard's book "A Few Hares to Chase: The Economic Life and Times of Bill Phillips". But I will also cast the net a little wider to draw on the writings of others who have reviewed and built on the work of Phillips; and naturally, I will call on a number of the original papers by Phillips. However, any suggestion that I will fully capture all that has been written about Phillips, his life and work, must be summarily dismissed. Put “AWH Phillips economist” into Google search and one gets 201,100 links; for “Phillips curve” a mere 717,000.

The essay proceeds as follows. Phillips’ work is grouped into four broad areas:

- Inflation and Unemployment - Dynamic Stabilisation and Optimal Control - Economic growth - Econometrics

This is followed by a brief discussion of forecasting and policy models with a sketch of their use in selected countries. A concluding section follows.