Do Struggling Students Benefit From Continued Student Loan Access? Evidence From University and Beyond

Abstract

We estimate the effects of access to student loans on university students’ educational attainment and labor market returns in New Zealand. We exploit the introduction of a policy mandating a minimum pass rate of 50% for student loan renewals using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and linked administrative records. For students around the threshold, retaining access to student loans increases their likelihood of re-enrollment and bachelor’s degree completion rate. The effects are observed primarily among female students due to a substantial gender difference in compliance with the pass rate criterion. We find that retaining student loan access leads to large labor market returns for struggling female students. The additional student loan debt from further borrowing declines quickly due to faster repayment.